Conviction
Conviction
3.23 | “Don't let a good crisis go to waste.” ― Winston Churchill
News and Numbers
Markets this Week:
S&P 500 is up 1%
NASDAQ 100 is up 1%
Bitcoin-USD is down 2%
Ethereum-USD is down 1%
Headlines from this Week:
Microsoft completes acquisition of Activision. Finally.
Birkenstock goes public. Stock down big already.
Tommy Fury beat KSI by (controversial) decision.
Logan Paul was beating Dillon Danis by points until a disqualification.
Finance
By Vlad Estoup, B.Comm. (Finance); working in Ethereum cybersecurity
Cryptocurrencies have taken the world by storm, captivating both novice and seasoned investors with their remarkable volatility and potential for astronomical gains. While many investors focus on the stock market as a leading indicator for economic trends, cryptocurrencies often function quite differently. In this article, we'll explore the intriguing phenomenon of how crypto is typically a delayed indicator for bull runs, and why, paradoxically, the best time to buy might be when nobody is talking about it.
In the financial world, traditional stock markets often act as leading indicators of economic performance. Investors closely follow key stock indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to gauge market sentiment and economic trends. When these indices are on the rise, it is generally seen as a bullish sign for the economy. However, cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, don't always follow the same patterns.
Crypto markets are known for their remarkable volatility, which can lead to significant price fluctuations. Unlike stocks, where corporate performance and economic factors often drive price changes, cryptocurrencies are influenced by a range of factors, including technological advancements, regulatory news, and market sentiment. As a result, it's not uncommon for crypto to be a delayed indicator for broader market trends.
When the stock market is flourishing and traditional assets like bonds and real estate are performing well, cryptocurrencies might not attract as much attention from investors. It's during these times that crypto prices may experience a lull or even a decline. This can lead to the misconception that cryptocurrencies are a risky investment when, in fact, it might be an opportune moment to consider entering the market.
One of the fascinating aspects of the cryptocurrency market is that it often experiences bull runs during periods when nobody is talking about it. These silent bull runs, characterized by a steady and consistent rise in prices, can be incredibly profitable for savvy investors.
During these quiet phases, the market is generally free from the hype and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that often leads to speculative bubbles. Investors who enter the market during these times may find themselves well-positioned to benefit from the subsequent surge in interest and demand. The key is to recognize these moments and capitalize on them before the masses catch on. Here are some key points:
Research and Analysis: Keep a close eye on the crypto market and conduct thorough research. Understand the technology and fundamentals of the projects you're interested in. Silent bull runs often start with solid fundamentals.
Low Volatility: Watch for periods of low volatility in the crypto market. When prices are relatively stable, it could be a sign that a quiet bull run is brewing.
Stay Informed: Even when crypto isn't making headlines, keep yourself informed about relevant developments, including technology upgrades, partnerships, and regulatory changes.
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Implement a DCA strategy by regularly investing a fixed amount of money into cryptocurrencies, regardless of market sentiment. This approach can be especially effective during silent bull runs.
Patience: Be patient and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term price fluctuations or market noise. Silent bull runs are characterized by their slow and steady ascent.
This is not financial advice and you should always do your own research before investing in any securities or cryptocurrencies.
Sci-Tech
By Keyann, Software Engineer in Web3
Capitalizing on Crisis: The Nexus of Domestic Challenges and Political Opportunities
I usually stick to STEM sciences, but I suppose political science is good enough to count as a science.
In the multifaceted realm of political science and international relations, the adage "Never let a good crisis go to waste" serves as a potent reminder of how crises and theories shape political narratives and strategies. The following concepts underscore the delicate interplay of politics, between internal dynamics and external actions, revealing how crises can be wielded for political gains while highlighting other insight political science concepts.
Diversionary Theory of War: Proposing that leaders under domestic pressure might escalate external conflicts, this theory exemplifies the tactic of diverting the public's gaze away from internal tribulations. This diversionary tactic, encapsulated in the 'rally 'round the flag' effect, sees domestic discord sidelined as the nation's attention shifts to an external adversary.
Opportunity Structures/Political Opportunity Theory: In the throes of crisis, the political milieu can be recalibrated, granting feasibility to previously untenable actions or policies.
Agenda Setting: Crises possess the potency to bring marginalized issues to the forefront, enabling them to dominate public and political discussions.
Punctuated Equilibrium Theory: Envisioned by Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones, this theory posits that policies, typically stable, can undergo radical shifts when catalyzed by appropriate triggers, such as a crisis.
Problem Definition/Framing: The perception of crises can be maneuvered strategically to determine the policy response, allowing for a narrative to be steered towards specific solutions.
Crisis Management and Decision Making: Crises often necessitate swift resolutions, thereby fast-tracking the adoption of fresh policies or strategies.
Hegemonic Stability Theory: In the international arena, dominant powers might see crises as opportunities to reinforce or amplify their dominion.
Dead Internet Theory: Venturing into the digital realm, this theory suggests that much of the internet, perceived as driven by grassroots content creators, is now controlled by corporate entities and bots. In the context of political discourse and crisis, the theory posits that narratives, opinions, and even public reactions can be artificially manipulated, with real public sentiment often obscured or drowned out.
By synthesizing these concepts, it becomes evident that in politics, challenges can transmute into opportunities. Both the Diversionary Theory and the perspectives on crises demonstrate the complex interplay between domestic challenges and external strategies. Such theories provide profound insights into the dynamic and often intricate dance of political landscapes, reminding us of the perennial fluidity of power dynamics and narrative control.
Paradigm Shift
By Roman Kuittinen-Dhaoui, CPHR, BBA (Hons)
Renting > Home Ownership
For many Canadians and Americans, owning a home is an important investment towards financial security, wealth generation, and retirement savings. However, with current interest rates as well as the price of homes increasing at faster rates than wages in recent decades, home ownership is something many Canadians and Americans can only attain in their dreams.
Renting and home ownership each have their advantages and disadvantages, and what is "better" depends on your individual financial situation, lifestyle, and long-term goals. Here are some reasons why renting might be considered better than home ownership for certain individuals or circumstances:
Flexibility: Renting offers more flexibility because you can easily move when your lease is up, allowing you to adapt to changes in your personal or professional life without the burden of selling a house.
Lower Initial Costs: Renting typically requires a smaller upfront financial commitment. You don't need to make a substantial down payment, and you may avoid some of the costs associated with buying a home, such as closing costs.
No Maintenance Responsibilities: As a renter, you're generally not responsible for major maintenance or repair costs. These expenses are typically the landlord's responsibility.
No Property Taxes or Homeowners Insurance: Renters don't have to pay property taxes or homeowners insurance, which can reduce monthly housing costs.
Diversification of Investments: Renting allows you to invest your money in other assets, potentially providing higher returns than investing in real estate.
Access to Amenities: Many rental properties, especially in apartment complexes or communities, come with amenities like gyms, swimming pools, and community spaces that homeowners might not have.
Predictable Monthly Expenses: Renters typically have more predictable monthly housing costs because rent tends to be stable over the term of the lease, while homeowners may face fluctuating costs due to property taxes, insurance, and maintenance.
Avoiding Home Price Speculation: Renters do not participate in real estate speculation, and therefore they are not vulnerable to housing bubbles or market crashes.
Despite these advantages, renting also has drawbacks. Over the long term, homeownership can build equity, and in many cases, mortgage payments are similar to or even lower than rent payments. Owning a home can also provide a sense of stability and a place to call your own. Ultimately, the choice between renting and owning should be based on your specific financial goals, lifestyle, and individual circumstances.
TLDR: This may not be that bad.
(Head)Space
By Keyann
Conviction
I keep a list of headspace ideas, from notes that I record when I experience certain thoughts, insights, or epiphanies. Any other week, i’d share one of them and think they’re worth the <5 min read, but it’s seems silly to share them given what I think most people are witnessing this week.
At the same time, I don’t think I have a valuable perspective or insights on the matter, given how detached I am, but I have to write something and I’m not going to act like it didn’t occupy my headspace this week, so take it for whatever it’s worth.
The Pitfalls of Blind Conviction
There’s a saying that ‘if you stand for nothing, you’ll fall for anything’. This sentiment has been celebrated as a beacon of individualism and principled living. But as with many axioms, it's not immune to scrutiny.
The Trap of Virtue Signaling
At first glance, the idea of standing for something feels right, even noble. But upon reflection, I've had to ask myself: Why am I taking this stand? Is it genuine conviction, or a misguided attempt to feed my own narcissism by signalling my virtue to others?
The Domino Effect of Polarization
Standing firm on an issue or cause means exposing oneself to opposition. This often spirals into a domino effect, with one disagreement leading to another, culminating in an environment of polarization and division.
The Influence of Media
Moreover, how often have we found ourselves passionately arguing a point we know little about? It's easy to buy into opinions sold to me by the media, designed specifically to elicit strong reactions.
Question Everything, Including Me
And as you weigh these considerations, take my words with a grain of salt. While I talk about rebellion and conviction, I've been fortunate to escape the clutches of true oppression. The anecdotes I share come from a place of relative privilege. While I pride myself on my ability to get along with just about anyone, that doesn’t necessarily validate my opinions.
A Broader Perspective
It's a widespread belief that people today differ fundamentally from those we read about in history books. Yet travel has been an enlightening educator in many ways. It has opened my eyes to the vastness of the world and sobered me to its reality. It’s one thing to learn history, but to experience it first hand is something different entirely. You realize the artifacts which exist today echo a past that isn’t so distant after all, but, in fact, still preserved. They are tangible links to a history that's closer to the present than we often recognize or credit. The evolution of art, architecture, cultures, and technology over a few thousand years disillusions us into thinking that our nature has evolved with it.
Conclusion: The Middle Path
The crux of the matter isn't whether we should stand for something, but how we choose our battles and how informed and genuine our convictions are. Before taking a stance, it's crucial to introspect, gather knowledge, and remain open to diverse perspectives. After all, in the vast theater of the world, humility and understanding might be the most rebellious acts of all.
Company of the Week
Blue Origin
Blue Origin is an aerospace company founded with a vision of millions of people living and working in space for the benefit of Earth. The company was founded in 2000 by Jeff Bezos and is headquartered in Kirkland, WA. Blue Origin has successfully launched a six-person crew to the edge of space for the first time in 2021.
Written by: Vlad Estoup, Keyann Al-Kheder, and Roman Kuittinen-Dhaoui